When we hear about winter forecasts, terms like El Niño and La Niña often pop up, and for good reason. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that swings between warmer (El Niño) and cooler (La Niña) ocean-atmosphere conditions. ( Climate.gov+2Climate.gov+2 ) These shifts ripple across the globe, influencing weather patterns — including here in Canada.
What Are El Niño and La Niña?
In simple terms:
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El Niño = warmer-than-average central/eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Historically, in many parts of Canada, El Niño winters have been milder than usual. The Weather Network+1
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La Niña = cooler-than-average tropical Pacific surface waters. A La Niña winter often brings cooler, snowier conditions in parts of western and central Canada. Canada.ca
Why This Year Might Lean Colder
Current forecasts show an increased chance of La Niña developing for the 2025-26 winter season. Powder+1 In a La Niña scenario, the jet stream shifts northward, allowing cold Arctic air to spill into western Canada and sometimes further east. National Weather Service+1 For example, western and prairie provinces could see below-average temperatures and above-average snow. climatedata.ca
Even though every La Niña is different (its strength, timing, and interaction with other climate factors matter), the signal is clear: there’s a real potential for a colder, snowier winter ahead, this means preparation is critical.
What It Means for Canadians
If winter turns out colder and harsher, vulnerable populations (including people experiencing homelessness or inadequate shelter) will face higher risks. Frostbite, hypothermia, and longer exposure to harsh cold become greater threats. This is why ensuring people have proper winter gear is more important than ever.
How We Help
At Toques From the Heart, our mission is to keep Canadians warm, one toque at a time. We produce our toques in Montreal and for every one you buy, we donate one to someone in need across Canada. In a colder-than-usual winter scenario, the extra warmth from a good toque matters even more. Whether it’s our Merino wool line, classic acrylic, sustainable recycled fibres, or hockey-sock inspired styles, every item helps. Your purchase means someone else doesn’t have to face the cold unprotected.
Final Thought
While no forecast is set in stone, the emerging pattern suggests this winter may bring stronger cold and more snow than recent years. By staying informed, getting equipped now, and supporting organizations focused on warmth and shelter, we can make a difference. And if you choose to shop with Toques From the Heart, you’re not just buying a toque, you’re giving someone a shot at staying warm this winter.